Tuesday, August 25, 2009

The Two Team Moneyline Parlay

PARAMETERS:
Pick Two home teams
Pick Moneyline

The essence of this play is identifying blatant mismatches which your sportsbook will still accept a moneyline offer on. Do not disregard your instincts here. If a play sings out, like it did to us in 2008 when the Timberwolves visited Cleveland, it's the play. if it doesn't, it's not

A rare instance of falling back on the gut, yet with measured temperment

The 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers had a remarkable 39-2 home record. For us, that means that had the moneyline activated for each home Cavs game regardless of the spread our winning percentage was an astounding 95%

The moneyline was not turned on for every home game, of course, but who cares when, at worst, you come out with 2 losses for the entire season?

No, we didn't have the luxury of hindsight to reveal the remarkable Cavs record during the season as we made our plays. But when the Cavs were 20-0 at home we had a very strong idea of what was possible for our bankroll

These are the types of plays pick52 seeks to indentify and exploit. They are not always available everyday. So in order to play them effectively we must seek them out specifically. We recognize them by the cut of their jib. We ask them to wear a large orange hat to the arranged meeting point so as to identify themselves

Anyway, the moneyline is usually deactivtated by most sportsbooks when the spread reaches between 12-13 points. The payouts way out there on the outter reaches of the moneyline are not great, but they are not horrible either. It's rare you'll see a -900 monyline, as most stay in the 800 range at worst. in this situation laying 800 dollars wins you 100. At first glance that is extremely unattractive for the amount of risk you'd be taking. But then again, it is a 12% return in just a little under 3 hrs. If you had 5000 to wager that is a little over 500 profit on one of the safer bets available on any card on any given day. A return of 12% annually is, traditionally, a successful profit on the new York Stock Exchange. However, it is a rare day on Wall St. to lose 100% of an investment in an equity in 3 hours time. Risk is inherent with both

So in order to reduce our monetary risk we add in a second team which increases our payout and allows us to keep our 3% wager parameter in check

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