Yo, it's the same thing as slowin' your roll...you just do it and cool off and you slow it, and you're better off for it in the end
You do not want to establish bad habits of lashing out after losses. Patterns of behavior such as doubling down or recouping an entire loss with one play are not a part of the regimen. Prompted by your losing plays, destructive emotions will always make an attempt to dupe your will and will arrive unannounced on a continuing basis for all but the very few. You have got to stay strong and recognize it when it arrives for what it is. This sounds so clinical, but that's precisely what we prescribe. Clinical. Fundamental. Don't launch hail marys. Utilize our method for protecting the self from the self...you are a better handicapper once you come to terms with your deficiencies and weaknesses, and we all have them
So if there is a number one rule I suppose this would be it: do not get yourself into jams. Don't launch hail marys. You are not here to perform the tricks of an escape artist. No one is there watching or analyzing your picks. This is not a stage, so do not put on a show with your card. Make it basic. That way you are less apt to cut loose on a play after 6 brews on a Sunday Night, while you're just waiting for Monday to come
Sure, you will pull out a few big wins the first couple of times you do this, and those wins will invariably pique your curiosity. When you hit your next weak spot and you choose carelessly, the emotion triggered by those prior wins will no doubt show up for a party funded by your pot that you never even knew you were gonna throw...
And don't worry - you'll get your money, just give it time. If you need the money immediately get it somewhere else, not here. Pick52 is a specific type of sports investment of which patience is the first requirement
There is no and has never been a Henry Houdini among us, and if there was I can almost guarantee that his experience was unpleasant. Do not attempt to ever imitate him, because in the end, you also want to be a happy person
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Totals
One example of a pick52 parameter pertains to plays on Totals. If you haven't seen our post on the practice of setting parameters for plays please read the post Buy In To Boundaries. It will help explain the philosophy behind Totals
My philosophy is that I only play the over. No unders, except in rare and last minute circumstances. Here's why:
The absolute best thing about the over is that it is the one true play that can be covered before a contest is officially finished. Seasoned cappers will recognize an under play they've made in the past that was tracking for a win, with little to no scoring throughout the contest, only to lose on a flukish late game string of improbable events and player mistakes which led to a plethora of scoring in the final minutes. And like that, your play = ruined
Do not allow yourself to be burned by the under. Think of it this way: you are charging both teams in the contest for 60 full minutes of effort each to not allow points, one of the two main objectives of every head-to-head sporting matchup. That is the maximum time possible. You have just the made the objective of your wager the most difficult it can possibly be. You have voluntarily granted the maximum alotted time for your play to lose. Taking the under is like pushing on the pull door. You're resisting the flow of the game, and at minimum that is the less fun side to be on. Wouldn't you rather be loose and freewheeling and have people throwing points up early?
I would much rather align myself with the forward momentum of the offensive unit and their will to score points than to never allow myself zero rest on defense and the final buzzer
Our goal is to choose slowly and carefully and exploit the over and aim for those moments of easy breathing when you've covered you college football play early third quarter...THAT is the experience we try to recreate every single time we play a Total
My philosophy is that I only play the over. No unders, except in rare and last minute circumstances. Here's why:
The absolute best thing about the over is that it is the one true play that can be covered before a contest is officially finished. Seasoned cappers will recognize an under play they've made in the past that was tracking for a win, with little to no scoring throughout the contest, only to lose on a flukish late game string of improbable events and player mistakes which led to a plethora of scoring in the final minutes. And like that, your play = ruined
Do not allow yourself to be burned by the under. Think of it this way: you are charging both teams in the contest for 60 full minutes of effort each to not allow points, one of the two main objectives of every head-to-head sporting matchup. That is the maximum time possible. You have just the made the objective of your wager the most difficult it can possibly be. You have voluntarily granted the maximum alotted time for your play to lose. Taking the under is like pushing on the pull door. You're resisting the flow of the game, and at minimum that is the less fun side to be on. Wouldn't you rather be loose and freewheeling and have people throwing points up early?
I would much rather align myself with the forward momentum of the offensive unit and their will to score points than to never allow myself zero rest on defense and the final buzzer
Our goal is to choose slowly and carefully and exploit the over and aim for those moments of easy breathing when you've covered you college football play early third quarter...THAT is the experience we try to recreate every single time we play a Total
Buy In To Boundaries
Easy money does not exist. The only way to success in sports investing is a designed, cultivated and refined regimen, and a method to go with it. Routine is the name of the game. You cannot win over the long haul on just your picking. Your life inside sports investing needs a routine
The beauty of a routine is that it is uniquely your own. You can create a technique that is comfortable to manage. Particularly during the baseball season, there is a lot of information coming at you all once. It's hard to digest all of the trends and stay current while simultaneously trying to predict future trends. The flood of information is too much over time. your mind and body will wear down guessing on baseball everyday out of habit. Parameters are insisting to be inserted here
Remember, don't make your investments by betting on yourself to quench your thirst via firehose...bet on yourself to take a successful sip of water from a straw
Another ingredient mandatory for success is the establishment of fundamentals and parameters for yourself. Find the things that you believe almost always hold true in sports and in wagering and believe in them even more. Bestow the utmost faith in them. Take them off the table of debate. Decide on them. These are the rules we set and don't break them until the point in time comes where you recognize that you can now break them safely. We will be more successful investors for it
Setting parameters for yourself means finding the three types of plays you're willing to make, for example. Pick what you feel are the best three plays available specific to each sport you love. My favorite plays are a straight side bet, a moneyline play, or a 2 team moneyline parlay...I also like to execute the 2 team seven point teaser in football and basketball. My parameter is that the 2 team 7 point teaser is the only teaser I will play. I want the maximum points for two teams, not 4 or 4.5 or 5, and I never want the extra three points for a 3 team 10 point teaser. Three games introduces too many variables into probable outcomes
Parameters exist to eliminate guesswork. That's the easiest way to remember it - they eliminate guesswork. Otherwise, you can be sitting there trying to decide whethe to give the Colts 4.5 points or 5 points and probable outcomes there because you want a higher payout. We eliminate this guesswork by ALWAYS TAKING THE FULL SEVEN POINTS. End of discussion. That way we don't have to sweat more intricate details we cannot control and we leave no room for guilt when the Colts win but dont cover your points
Don't let doubt knock on your door
The object of the two team parlay is to locate all contests across all sports in which you are interested and which you know a lot about. The moneyline must be activated. Then, find the matchup within that list you feel best about and take that team. Inside this play I also have set a subparameter and that is I only choose the home team. Then, find the second best home team take them. If there is not a second best team then never force yourself into finding you, or choose one you haved mixed feelings about. If you ever experience mixed feelings about the certainty of victory, do not pick the team. We are certain of every pick we make. That will never mean that we won't be worng, but the objective there is, whether right or wrong in the end, to never be in doubt in the beginnning
Certainy, parameters and fundamentals are all prt of building in safety nets for the doubting thomas that lives within all of us. We are designing a roadmap that does not eliminate fear, uncertainty and doubt, but it systemically trims as much of it out of the way as is possible
Keep in mind that parameters will be created and eliminated along the way, and exisiting parameters may need to be refined. The overarching goal though is to always know what your current parameters are that youre keeping, and to check every one of our play sagainst them. Baseball is the prime example and the sport I have in mind here as I try to provide explanation
Late in the baseball season, when we've been burned a few times by inconsistent hitting and teams that cannot produce runs on a consistent basis, we remove them from our repotoire, so to speak. They may have a great pitching staff, and on the day their ace takes the mound at home against a last place team we will be tempted to take them, yes. But once my parameter is set and that team is off the list, they're off the list. Toward the end of every baseball season I pick the strongest offensive teams for my stable. That is my parameter. Having a stable and sticking with it. There is no fixed number. If there are three strong hitting teams top to bottom then my stable has three teams
Here is this year's pick52 MLB Stable, in alphabetical
Angels
Cardinals
Phillies
Rays
Rangers
Red Sox
Yankees
Many of you will immediately notice a team or two missing from this list and question the call. In my estimation in this instance it would be the Dodgers who were missing. The Dodgers happen to be in a sizable downswing in terms of run production. When they hit well again we'll reevaluate. Point being, if you like the team and know they are good but the hitting is streakier than it should be, they don't belong in the stable. The stable is for ponies. Ponies run. And hit. And score.
Trust. Trust a team to win and trust a team to lose. Just make sure they hit
The beauty of a routine is that it is uniquely your own. You can create a technique that is comfortable to manage. Particularly during the baseball season, there is a lot of information coming at you all once. It's hard to digest all of the trends and stay current while simultaneously trying to predict future trends. The flood of information is too much over time. your mind and body will wear down guessing on baseball everyday out of habit. Parameters are insisting to be inserted here
Remember, don't make your investments by betting on yourself to quench your thirst via firehose...bet on yourself to take a successful sip of water from a straw
Another ingredient mandatory for success is the establishment of fundamentals and parameters for yourself. Find the things that you believe almost always hold true in sports and in wagering and believe in them even more. Bestow the utmost faith in them. Take them off the table of debate. Decide on them. These are the rules we set and don't break them until the point in time comes where you recognize that you can now break them safely. We will be more successful investors for it
Setting parameters for yourself means finding the three types of plays you're willing to make, for example. Pick what you feel are the best three plays available specific to each sport you love. My favorite plays are a straight side bet, a moneyline play, or a 2 team moneyline parlay...I also like to execute the 2 team seven point teaser in football and basketball. My parameter is that the 2 team 7 point teaser is the only teaser I will play. I want the maximum points for two teams, not 4 or 4.5 or 5, and I never want the extra three points for a 3 team 10 point teaser. Three games introduces too many variables into probable outcomes
Parameters exist to eliminate guesswork. That's the easiest way to remember it - they eliminate guesswork. Otherwise, you can be sitting there trying to decide whethe to give the Colts 4.5 points or 5 points and probable outcomes there because you want a higher payout. We eliminate this guesswork by ALWAYS TAKING THE FULL SEVEN POINTS. End of discussion. That way we don't have to sweat more intricate details we cannot control and we leave no room for guilt when the Colts win but dont cover your points
Don't let doubt knock on your door
The object of the two team parlay is to locate all contests across all sports in which you are interested and which you know a lot about. The moneyline must be activated. Then, find the matchup within that list you feel best about and take that team. Inside this play I also have set a subparameter and that is I only choose the home team. Then, find the second best home team take them. If there is not a second best team then never force yourself into finding you, or choose one you haved mixed feelings about. If you ever experience mixed feelings about the certainty of victory, do not pick the team. We are certain of every pick we make. That will never mean that we won't be worng, but the objective there is, whether right or wrong in the end, to never be in doubt in the beginnning
Certainy, parameters and fundamentals are all prt of building in safety nets for the doubting thomas that lives within all of us. We are designing a roadmap that does not eliminate fear, uncertainty and doubt, but it systemically trims as much of it out of the way as is possible
Keep in mind that parameters will be created and eliminated along the way, and exisiting parameters may need to be refined. The overarching goal though is to always know what your current parameters are that youre keeping, and to check every one of our play sagainst them. Baseball is the prime example and the sport I have in mind here as I try to provide explanation
Late in the baseball season, when we've been burned a few times by inconsistent hitting and teams that cannot produce runs on a consistent basis, we remove them from our repotoire, so to speak. They may have a great pitching staff, and on the day their ace takes the mound at home against a last place team we will be tempted to take them, yes. But once my parameter is set and that team is off the list, they're off the list. Toward the end of every baseball season I pick the strongest offensive teams for my stable. That is my parameter. Having a stable and sticking with it. There is no fixed number. If there are three strong hitting teams top to bottom then my stable has three teams
Here is this year's pick52 MLB Stable, in alphabetical
Angels
Cardinals
Phillies
Rays
Rangers
Red Sox
Yankees
Many of you will immediately notice a team or two missing from this list and question the call. In my estimation in this instance it would be the Dodgers who were missing. The Dodgers happen to be in a sizable downswing in terms of run production. When they hit well again we'll reevaluate. Point being, if you like the team and know they are good but the hitting is streakier than it should be, they don't belong in the stable. The stable is for ponies. Ponies run. And hit. And score.
Trust. Trust a team to win and trust a team to lose. Just make sure they hit
Compound Interest
Let your money do the heavy lifting, not the athletes
The pick52 method is a long term strategy, guys. We all want more money right now, we all want to launch a home run (read: hail mary) play to double our pot. We all handicap to reduce our debts or improve our lives in ways unique to our tastes and economic obligations. Obligations like mortgages or our female companion's interest in vacations. We'd like to try and help you forget about that type of strategy and retrain yourself to play more selectively, using patience and foresight as the centerpiece of your strategy
Understanding the power of compound interest is a key component to understanding the pick52 method and VITAL to remaining on track with the first 6 months of your play schedule
Most of us have at least vague memories of the mention of compound interest from high school. And most of us zone out at the mere mention of any math or economics related data or financese. Our eyes glaze over. But stick with me here real quickly, it'll just take a few minutes, because I want you to understand, if you don't already, the power of compound interest as it relates to something that DOES excite you - sports investing
The simplest way to think of compound interest I've ever heard is an analogy my high school calculus teacher taught in class, and it's as easy to understand as it gets.
Imagine you have a single piece of loose leaf paper and you fold it in half. Theoretically, that piece of paper is twice as high as it use to be. It may also help to think of adding stories to a building. Add 1 to 1 and you have 2, Add 2 stories to those 2 and you have 4. Add 4 to those four stories and its 8. Then 16. Doublling as you go on. In just 5 folds, you've increased the heighth of your building or your folding piece of paper by 1600%
Compund interest doesn't work exactly like that, but its similar enough for our purposes. With compound interest, you earn interest on interest. At first the gains don't appear to be significant. Yet over time you'll see your returns spike exponentially:
http://ownyourcarforfree.com/images/compounding.gif
You Gotta Fight
" You gotta fight....for your right....to par-lay."
- Kris Chizzoe
We hate Dell, but we do have one thing we can take away from this job that we didn't have before: an understaniding of how to set up an IT infrastructure and maintain it
That melds perfectly into our true passion, cappin'. And for me, cappin' and writing about it. When we walk from here we are walking with knowledge of the single most useful tool in our trade, inside sources for the infrastructure of our entire enterprise, aside from a marketing person and web designer and maintenance
The way I see this, there are only three main things left we need:
1. The surplus capital for the hardware, software, and 12 months of maintenance for our site
2. The content
3. A web designer on our payroll
I'm creating a backstory and a backlog of content that we can refine as we go while we come up with the money and the rest of what we need. We'll pitch the method, the psychology, and the discipline required to be a successful capper - that the goal is to play as little as possible. We'll make a few simple points and reiterate them
I'm going to quote out the hardware in IDD that I think we'd need to get us started, which is really just a few servers, some Microsoft or VM software and an MD3000
Once we're up and live we won't just talk sports, we'll bring an entire philosophy to it and make it entertaining like Bonner does. I'd love to know more about why ARedd is nobody's trick, but if ARedd won't take the time to tell me, who is going to? We will take the time to let our subscribers know what we're really about and the way we see the world. We'll create visual aids -colorful graphs and charts - for the cappers on how compund interest works just to remind them how powerful it is...we'll include lyrics to our ASG and capper's tunes to keep shiz funny...keep 'em guessin'. Sometimes serious, sometimes not
Let's work on this dream. It doesn't matter how long it takes, there is no pressure. Just one step at a time until we need to make the next biggest decision in bringing it to fruition
Boom
- Kris Chizzoe
We hate Dell, but we do have one thing we can take away from this job that we didn't have before: an understaniding of how to set up an IT infrastructure and maintain it
That melds perfectly into our true passion, cappin'. And for me, cappin' and writing about it. When we walk from here we are walking with knowledge of the single most useful tool in our trade, inside sources for the infrastructure of our entire enterprise, aside from a marketing person and web designer and maintenance
The way I see this, there are only three main things left we need:
1. The surplus capital for the hardware, software, and 12 months of maintenance for our site
2. The content
3. A web designer on our payroll
I'm creating a backstory and a backlog of content that we can refine as we go while we come up with the money and the rest of what we need. We'll pitch the method, the psychology, and the discipline required to be a successful capper - that the goal is to play as little as possible. We'll make a few simple points and reiterate them
I'm going to quote out the hardware in IDD that I think we'd need to get us started, which is really just a few servers, some Microsoft or VM software and an MD3000
Once we're up and live we won't just talk sports, we'll bring an entire philosophy to it and make it entertaining like Bonner does. I'd love to know more about why ARedd is nobody's trick, but if ARedd won't take the time to tell me, who is going to? We will take the time to let our subscribers know what we're really about and the way we see the world. We'll create visual aids -colorful graphs and charts - for the cappers on how compund interest works just to remind them how powerful it is...we'll include lyrics to our ASG and capper's tunes to keep shiz funny...keep 'em guessin'. Sometimes serious, sometimes not
Let's work on this dream. It doesn't matter how long it takes, there is no pressure. Just one step at a time until we need to make the next biggest decision in bringing it to fruition
Boom
Surf's Up
The process of making a play selection reminds me of the few times I've attempted to surf. Let's just say that my success at carving waves was fantastically limited, but just being out there those handful of times was enough to pick up on the visual element of choosing a wave, and picking out a wave on a surfboard is an apt comparison for choosing your play. Unlike surfing, where you wait and wait until eventually your instinct kicks in and you paddle hard for your wave, the average gambler won't normally have the patience to wait. He will jump up on the best play he sees for today, the first wave, with each advancing day coming up to blindside him at work at his desk when he logs into espn.com is another full card of the day's game. And maybe even the two, three or four best plays...There are very many things wrong with that strategy
Before I explain that, let's first go back to the surfing analogy, because it bare's repeating.
Wait for the wave you love
Aloha
So Many Cappers
Too often in my personal sports investing, I've come across professional handicappers selling their subscription services and pumping their picks by simply reposting trend lines and filling us in briefly on their hunches. These players are required to make picks on a daily basis by virtue of their selling future packages which are to include daily picks, thus forcing their at hand at making a selection on a card that may not actually provide a clear and logical opportunity to win. This simply defies logic and does not stay consistent with the fundamental principle of managing your downside risk. During a long summer season of major league baseball, for example, this is extremely rocky terrain to navigate, with an average of 12 games per day
12 games per day is a lot of info to sort through. That's 24 teams with 9 players each per starting lineup. You've got pitchers, hitters, wives, girlfriends,, kids, the less-visible oftentimes mythic bullpens, cold and hot streaks, travel to consider, health issues, etc. - a lot to keep up with
Coming to the table every day to sort through all of that - especially with your busy daily life to contend with - can at best feel like an extreme challenge, and at worst a fool's errand. Human emotion is our rival in this constant stuggle of capper vs. self. Pick52.com is here to help you see the forest for the trees. We want to provide you with our way of getting a handle on your own emotions. Think of us as your personal trainer for sports investing, much like you might have a personal trainer at the gym to watch and guide you for an hour a day. To us, it is more about your wagering habits and money management first...only second do we focus on making our actual selections and getting the action
The pick52.coom method will take you above the fray to give you the 10,000 foot view on how to make money. It will take some time. It will take some trust. But pick52.com will serve as a daily reminder that with patience and wisdom, winning just got statistically easier
We all dream of hitting a big play, and of easy money, but we all either already know or inevitably come to find out that easy money is extremely hard (not impossible) to come by. Of your options for easy money you have theft, you have the lotto, you have inheritance, or you have going all in on a game...
Until next time
12 games per day is a lot of info to sort through. That's 24 teams with 9 players each per starting lineup. You've got pitchers, hitters, wives, girlfriends,, kids, the less-visible oftentimes mythic bullpens, cold and hot streaks, travel to consider, health issues, etc. - a lot to keep up with
Coming to the table every day to sort through all of that - especially with your busy daily life to contend with - can at best feel like an extreme challenge, and at worst a fool's errand. Human emotion is our rival in this constant stuggle of capper vs. self. Pick52.com is here to help you see the forest for the trees. We want to provide you with our way of getting a handle on your own emotions. Think of us as your personal trainer for sports investing, much like you might have a personal trainer at the gym to watch and guide you for an hour a day. To us, it is more about your wagering habits and money management first...only second do we focus on making our actual selections and getting the action
The pick52.coom method will take you above the fray to give you the 10,000 foot view on how to make money. It will take some time. It will take some trust. But pick52.com will serve as a daily reminder that with patience and wisdom, winning just got statistically easier
We all dream of hitting a big play, and of easy money, but we all either already know or inevitably come to find out that easy money is extremely hard (not impossible) to come by. Of your options for easy money you have theft, you have the lotto, you have inheritance, or you have going all in on a game...
Until next time
Up and Away
"Everybody loves the sound of a train in the distance...everybody thinks it's true."
- Paul Simon
Welcome to the preamble of pick52.com, a sports investment site with a unique philosophy and perspective on how to make wagering profitable while minimizing downside risk. We are looking forward to fulfilling a need by providing more in-depth analysis of why we play what we play when we play it, while mixing in a real-time, current-events based framework. More importantly than that. we want our readers to know that we have taken the time to create a method to stick to, the pick52 regimen
Our regimen is not an attempt at reinventing the wheel. What we bring to the table is consistency and clarity, and we back both up by explaining ourselves on a daily basis. We are here because we want you to get to know and, eventually, trust us. We know that asking for blind faith based on what could easily be a fictitious posted record the way many handicappers do can feel almost insulting. So we're taking things much deeper for you, and providing much more detail
Pick52.com isn't asking for your blind faith, just your time. 10-15 minutes a day to read through our method and our thoughts and consider them. Yes, we will post our entire record and archive it on the site so that you may reference it at any time. The site does not intend to distort or manipulate our record and hence it will always be posted for all to see
Our approach to lasting through tough economic times and to outrunning inflation is based on two simple and easy to understand concepts: visualization and patience. Readers of pick52.com will get a little bit of everything in their daily dose, from politics and finance, to history and psychology, to geography and philosophy, to music and science, to literature and, of course, sports. We seek to keep our writing current, relevant and valuable to investors from every stripe. We take money seriously and are highly aware our readers do too, so you'll never have to wade through the bullshit of being pitched a hot streak or a record. It will always all be right there...to take or leave
- Paul Simon
Welcome to the preamble of pick52.com, a sports investment site with a unique philosophy and perspective on how to make wagering profitable while minimizing downside risk. We are looking forward to fulfilling a need by providing more in-depth analysis of why we play what we play when we play it, while mixing in a real-time, current-events based framework. More importantly than that. we want our readers to know that we have taken the time to create a method to stick to, the pick52 regimen
Our regimen is not an attempt at reinventing the wheel. What we bring to the table is consistency and clarity, and we back both up by explaining ourselves on a daily basis. We are here because we want you to get to know and, eventually, trust us. We know that asking for blind faith based on what could easily be a fictitious posted record the way many handicappers do can feel almost insulting. So we're taking things much deeper for you, and providing much more detail
Pick52.com isn't asking for your blind faith, just your time. 10-15 minutes a day to read through our method and our thoughts and consider them. Yes, we will post our entire record and archive it on the site so that you may reference it at any time. The site does not intend to distort or manipulate our record and hence it will always be posted for all to see
Our approach to lasting through tough economic times and to outrunning inflation is based on two simple and easy to understand concepts: visualization and patience. Readers of pick52.com will get a little bit of everything in their daily dose, from politics and finance, to history and psychology, to geography and philosophy, to music and science, to literature and, of course, sports. We seek to keep our writing current, relevant and valuable to investors from every stripe. We take money seriously and are highly aware our readers do too, so you'll never have to wade through the bullshit of being pitched a hot streak or a record. It will always all be right there...to take or leave
Welcome to pick52.com...check back tomorrow for our second installment in the rollout phase, where we'll reveal more about who we are and what our method can do for you
Until tomorrow...
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