Sunday, August 23, 2009

Buy In To Boundaries

Easy money does not exist. The only way to success in sports investing is a designed, cultivated and refined regimen, and a method to go with it. Routine is the name of the game. You cannot win over the long haul on just your picking. Your life inside sports investing needs a routine

The beauty of a routine is that it is uniquely your own. You can create a technique that is comfortable to manage. Particularly during the baseball season, there is a lot of information coming at you all once. It's hard to digest all of the trends and stay current while simultaneously trying to predict future trends. The flood of information is too much over time. your mind and body will wear down guessing on baseball everyday out of habit. Parameters are insisting to be inserted here

Remember, don't make your investments by betting on yourself to quench your thirst via firehose...bet on yourself to take a successful sip of water from a straw

Another ingredient mandatory for success is the establishment of fundamentals and parameters for yourself. Find the things that you believe almost always hold true in sports and in wagering and believe in them even more. Bestow the utmost faith in them. Take them off the table of debate. Decide on them. These are the rules we set and don't break them until the point in time comes where you recognize that you can now break them safely. We will be more successful investors for it

Setting parameters for yourself means finding the three types of plays you're willing to make, for example. Pick what you feel are the best three plays available specific to each sport you love. My favorite plays are a straight side bet, a moneyline play, or a 2 team moneyline parlay...I also like to execute the 2 team seven point teaser in football and basketball. My parameter is that the 2 team 7 point teaser is the only teaser I will play. I want the maximum points for two teams, not 4 or 4.5 or 5, and I never want the extra three points for a 3 team 10 point teaser. Three games introduces too many variables into probable outcomes

Parameters exist to eliminate guesswork. That's the easiest way to remember it - they eliminate guesswork. Otherwise, you can be sitting there trying to decide whethe to give the Colts 4.5 points or 5 points and probable outcomes there because you want a higher payout. We eliminate this guesswork by ALWAYS TAKING THE FULL SEVEN POINTS. End of discussion. That way we don't have to sweat more intricate details we cannot control and we leave no room for guilt when the Colts win but dont cover your points

Don't let doubt knock on your door

The object of the two team parlay is to locate all contests across all sports in which you are interested and which you know a lot about. The moneyline must be activated. Then, find the matchup within that list you feel best about and take that team. Inside this play I also have set a subparameter and that is I only choose the home team. Then, find the second best home team take them. If there is not a second best team then never force yourself into finding you, or choose one you haved mixed feelings about. If you ever experience mixed feelings about the certainty of victory, do not pick the team. We are certain of every pick we make. That will never mean that we won't be worng, but the objective there is, whether right or wrong in the end, to never be in doubt in the beginnning

Certainy, parameters and fundamentals are all prt of building in safety nets for the doubting thomas that lives within all of us. We are designing a roadmap that does not eliminate fear, uncertainty and doubt, but it systemically trims as much of it out of the way as is possible

Keep in mind that parameters will be created and eliminated along the way, and exisiting parameters may need to be refined. The overarching goal though is to always know what your current parameters are that youre keeping, and to check every one of our play sagainst them. Baseball is the prime example and the sport I have in mind here as I try to provide explanation

Late in the baseball season, when we've been burned a few times by inconsistent hitting and teams that cannot produce runs on a consistent basis, we remove them from our repotoire, so to speak. They may have a great pitching staff, and on the day their ace takes the mound at home against a last place team we will be tempted to take them, yes. But once my parameter is set and that team is off the list, they're off the list. Toward the end of every baseball season I pick the strongest offensive teams for my stable. That is my parameter. Having a stable and sticking with it. There is no fixed number. If there are three strong hitting teams top to bottom then my stable has three teams

Here is this year's pick52 MLB Stable, in alphabetical

Angels
Cardinals
Phillies
Rays
Rangers
Red Sox
Yankees

Many of you will immediately notice a team or two missing from this list and question the call. In my estimation in this instance it would be the Dodgers who were missing. The Dodgers happen to be in a sizable downswing in terms of run production. When they hit well again we'll reevaluate. Point being, if you like the team and know they are good but the hitting is streakier than it should be, they don't belong in the stable. The stable is for ponies. Ponies run. And hit. And score.

Trust. Trust a team to win and trust a team to lose. Just make sure they hit

1 comment:

  1. Keep an eye out for the MLB Stable 2010 next year in August

    ReplyDelete