Any sea change in commonlaw banking and financial regualtion legislation seems to always pass near Cristmas. Right down from the Federal Reserrve Act in Christmas break 1913 all the way down to the 110th House of representatives' new financial regulations that passed today to "redo" the law after the collapse in the Fall of 08.
Also, have you ever thought about how nicely 9/11 na the collapse of the stock market in ht e fall of 2008 bookended the Bush Presidyency? As chance would have it Bush and, more importantly, his backers, had almost their entire two terms apart from formalitie of transition that occurs at the beginning of most pecae-time presidencies.
Bush and team used the shock and awe of its own people after 9/11 to pass all types of legislation that christens the first recognized wave of government surveillance in the US. IT is new, relatively speaking, when you consider the rate of its development coupled with the drastic reduction of client and enterprise hardware to commodity status.
China graduates 15 engineers every year from its graduate schools, a scomaperd to the US, which puts out 1. Think of that - starting fro this very moment we started measuring moving forward. After year 1 China would outnumber the US by 15 engineers to 1. After year 2, by 30 to 2. After year three we see 45 engineers to 3. Year 4 60 to 4 and year 5 75 to 5. For even further comparison, think of those 5 american enginneers a a basketball team. They would simulataneously compete against the equivalent of 15 other teams, all at once. The magnitude is scary for the dawning of Chinese inention and product development.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Money Management
Picks will be listed with a numeric percentage - 5% - and that willbe the amount of your total pot that you play. If you hhave $100 your first play is for $. This will aggravate most, but if you don't stick to regimen than you are missing the point of the method as I've explained it and I apologize. It is required that you play the prercentage listed to win here.
The flat percentage is the simplest method I can possibly think of to determine the size of a sports bet for the general public. It's concrete. There is nothing to calculate. Flat percentage..
The flat percentage is the simplest method I can possibly think of to determine the size of a sports bet for the general public. It's concrete. There is nothing to calculate. Flat percentage..
Checked Out
That's it, I've had it. If I could leave my job and just cap, I'd play one moneyline parlay per day, and one teaser.
Example:
3*
Celts
Magic
Mississippi St
1.5*
Marymount +5.5
Syracuse +4
Cincy -7.5
I would chronohedge and use as long of a time period as necessary to lasso in two-to-three moneyline locks from any and every sport, on any given night or stretch. Use weekend long plays
Example:
3*
Celts
Magic
Mississippi St
1.5*
Marymount +5.5
Syracuse +4
Cincy -7.5
I would chronohedge and use as long of a time period as necessary to lasso in two-to-three moneyline locks from any and every sport, on any given night or stretch. Use weekend long plays
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Like a chef, we create a menu of plays every day. We start by discarding all the games without a moneyline. Then, we form a list of available plays with available mlines from ALL sports. From that list we pinpoint the strongest teams competing with the weakest.
2 and 3 team moneyline parlays always form the core of our daily play. As occassional supplements, we'll see a lean where it's immediately evident that an underdog is not receiving the credit they deserve in a matchup and are getting way too many points. In situations like this we'll get ourselves insunsurance and pllay a 2 or 3 team teaser. The remaining teams in the teaser will have to have revealed themselves as immediately evident leans to the underdog.
We seek the maximum amount of points and therefore start from plays where the moneyline is activated and on yet within just a half or full point from being turned off and deactivated...the periphery...the utter outter edges of a mismatch
2 and 3 team moneyline parlays always form the core of our daily play. As occassional supplements, we'll see a lean where it's immediately evident that an underdog is not receiving the credit they deserve in a matchup and are getting way too many points. In situations like this we'll get ourselves insunsurance and pllay a 2 or 3 team teaser. The remaining teams in the teaser will have to have revealed themselves as immediately evident leans to the underdog.
We seek the maximum amount of points and therefore start from plays where the moneyline is activated and on yet within just a half or full point from being turned off and deactivated...the periphery...the utter outter edges of a mismatch
Saturday, December 5, 2009
November USF Football
Late in the season - third and fourth weeks of Novemver - I see an advantage in the fact that a college team from steamy south florida plays in the Big East.
If USF plays on the road during this time and the weather turns cold and snowy, take a hard look at the home team
South Florida will NEVER be prepared for cold weather football because, as auniversity, the age and transient nature of a school's players will never allow for a group of athletes with timeworn experience to know what it means like to play consistentty well in the cold. To be the best in the cold you must log the practice hours on the cold. Like any other muscle memory pattern, the right to win in the cold comes from the will to get out in the cold
If USF plays on the road during this time and the weather turns cold and snowy, take a hard look at the home team
South Florida will NEVER be prepared for cold weather football because, as auniversity, the age and transient nature of a school's players will never allow for a group of athletes with timeworn experience to know what it means like to play consistentty well in the cold. To be the best in the cold you must log the practice hours on the cold. Like any other muscle memory pattern, the right to win in the cold comes from the will to get out in the cold
December 5, 2009
Players are hurt late in the year. Injuries sometimes change the presumed concluson. Conference championship weekend is full of volatility and indecision by the sportsbooks...
Saturday, September 19, 2009
NonConference / Weeks 1-3 NCAAF
Pinpoint the Top 10 teams matched up against extremely weak opponents. Look for Ranked teams coming off losses, like OSU losing to USC at home week2 and then going to Toledo giving 20 points only
Do not take weak teams like Toledo, North Texas, Purdue, Army, etc, even with what seems like a lot of points...NO MATTER WHAT
Do not take weak teams like Toledo, North Texas, Purdue, Army, etc, even with what seems like a lot of points...NO MATTER WHAT
Parameters - Getting Started
1. We seek out the best home teams with double digit spreads that still have an activated moneyline
2. Never give points on the road
2. Never give points on the road
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Keep Us Posted So We Keep You Vested
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Thank you
Thank you
Pascal's Wager
* This is a post from Barry Ritholtz's website, The Big Picture
Most would agree that the primary commonality of investing and gambling is the wagering of money on an uncertain outcome; therefore, one could argue that the two words share the same general meaning with regard to the underlying respective wagering activity [Note: Of course one may debate the differences in meaning between 'investor' and 'trader' as well but for purposes of this post, we’ll assume that traders are investors].
Differentiating between the two, whether one is an investor or a gambler, therefore, may simply be found within one’s self-perception of their motivation with regard to the wagering activity (assuming an honest self-reflection and resulting self-assessment is possible).
Personally, I like to employ the use of timeless wisdom, as opposed to conventional wisdom, for points of reference:
A given man lives a life free from boredom by gambling a small sum every day. Give him every morning the money he might win that day, but on condition that he does not gamble, and you will make him unhappy. It might be argued that what he wants is the entertainment of gaming and not the winnings. Make him play then for nothing; his interest will not be fired and he will become bored, so it is not entertainment he wants. A half-hearted entertainment, he must delude himself into imagining that he would be happy to win what he would not want as a gift if it meant giving up gambling. ~ Blaise Pascal
Blaise Pascal, who is best known for “Pascal’s Wager,” seems to suggest, and I concur, that the “entertainment of gaming” and “the winnings” are not mutually exclusive motivations of the gambler: Take either of them away and the gambler is unhappy.
Perhaps the definition of gambler, then, might be “one who wages money on an uncertain outcome and, with regard to the particular wagering activity, is motivated both by the entertainment of gaming and the prospects of winning; but not one without the other.”
In my own personal reflection, for example, I believe I would label myself as an investor. I say this because, if I were offered a modest rate of return, of say 8% annualized for life with no possibility of earning more (or less), I would take the offer and move on to other pursuits (that would not include gaming of any sort). In other words, I do seek “the winnings,” which I would define as outpacing inflation by a significant margin, but I could care less about “the entertainment of gaming.”
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http://financialphilosopher.typepad.com/thefinancialphilosopher/2007/10/finding-god-in-.html
Most would agree that the primary commonality of investing and gambling is the wagering of money on an uncertain outcome; therefore, one could argue that the two words share the same general meaning with regard to the underlying respective wagering activity [Note: Of course one may debate the differences in meaning between 'investor' and 'trader' as well but for purposes of this post, we’ll assume that traders are investors].
Differentiating between the two, whether one is an investor or a gambler, therefore, may simply be found within one’s self-perception of their motivation with regard to the wagering activity (assuming an honest self-reflection and resulting self-assessment is possible).
Personally, I like to employ the use of timeless wisdom, as opposed to conventional wisdom, for points of reference:
A given man lives a life free from boredom by gambling a small sum every day. Give him every morning the money he might win that day, but on condition that he does not gamble, and you will make him unhappy. It might be argued that what he wants is the entertainment of gaming and not the winnings. Make him play then for nothing; his interest will not be fired and he will become bored, so it is not entertainment he wants. A half-hearted entertainment, he must delude himself into imagining that he would be happy to win what he would not want as a gift if it meant giving up gambling. ~ Blaise Pascal
Blaise Pascal, who is best known for “Pascal’s Wager,” seems to suggest, and I concur, that the “entertainment of gaming” and “the winnings” are not mutually exclusive motivations of the gambler: Take either of them away and the gambler is unhappy.
Perhaps the definition of gambler, then, might be “one who wages money on an uncertain outcome and, with regard to the particular wagering activity, is motivated both by the entertainment of gaming and the prospects of winning; but not one without the other.”
In my own personal reflection, for example, I believe I would label myself as an investor. I say this because, if I were offered a modest rate of return, of say 8% annualized for life with no possibility of earning more (or less), I would take the offer and move on to other pursuits (that would not include gaming of any sort). In other words, I do seek “the winnings,” which I would define as outpacing inflation by a significant margin, but I could care less about “the entertainment of gaming.”
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http://financialphilosopher.typepad.com/thefinancialphilosopher/2007/10/finding-god-in-.html
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Testing...1...2...
pick52 subscribers...the Week 1 Game of the Week is out:
MLB: Houston Astros (Moehler 8-9, 5.29) at St. Louis Cardinals (Carpenter 14-3, 2.16)
Thursday, August 27, 2009, 2:15PM EST
Pick: CARDINALS moneyline for 5%
MLB: Houston Astros (Moehler 8-9, 5.29) at St. Louis Cardinals (Carpenter 14-3, 2.16)
Thursday, August 27, 2009, 2:15PM EST
Pick: CARDINALS moneyline for 5%
The Two Team Moneyline Parlay
PARAMETERS:
Pick Two home teams
Pick Moneyline
The essence of this play is identifying blatant mismatches which your sportsbook will still accept a moneyline offer on. Do not disregard your instincts here. If a play sings out, like it did to us in 2008 when the Timberwolves visited Cleveland, it's the play. if it doesn't, it's not
A rare instance of falling back on the gut, yet with measured temperment
The 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers had a remarkable 39-2 home record. For us, that means that had the moneyline activated for each home Cavs game regardless of the spread our winning percentage was an astounding 95%
The moneyline was not turned on for every home game, of course, but who cares when, at worst, you come out with 2 losses for the entire season?
No, we didn't have the luxury of hindsight to reveal the remarkable Cavs record during the season as we made our plays. But when the Cavs were 20-0 at home we had a very strong idea of what was possible for our bankroll
These are the types of plays pick52 seeks to indentify and exploit. They are not always available everyday. So in order to play them effectively we must seek them out specifically. We recognize them by the cut of their jib. We ask them to wear a large orange hat to the arranged meeting point so as to identify themselves
Anyway, the moneyline is usually deactivtated by most sportsbooks when the spread reaches between 12-13 points. The payouts way out there on the outter reaches of the moneyline are not great, but they are not horrible either. It's rare you'll see a -900 monyline, as most stay in the 800 range at worst. in this situation laying 800 dollars wins you 100. At first glance that is extremely unattractive for the amount of risk you'd be taking. But then again, it is a 12% return in just a little under 3 hrs. If you had 5000 to wager that is a little over 500 profit on one of the safer bets available on any card on any given day. A return of 12% annually is, traditionally, a successful profit on the new York Stock Exchange. However, it is a rare day on Wall St. to lose 100% of an investment in an equity in 3 hours time. Risk is inherent with both
So in order to reduce our monetary risk we add in a second team which increases our payout and allows us to keep our 3% wager parameter in check
Pick Two home teams
Pick Moneyline
The essence of this play is identifying blatant mismatches which your sportsbook will still accept a moneyline offer on. Do not disregard your instincts here. If a play sings out, like it did to us in 2008 when the Timberwolves visited Cleveland, it's the play. if it doesn't, it's not
A rare instance of falling back on the gut, yet with measured temperment
The 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers had a remarkable 39-2 home record. For us, that means that had the moneyline activated for each home Cavs game regardless of the spread our winning percentage was an astounding 95%
The moneyline was not turned on for every home game, of course, but who cares when, at worst, you come out with 2 losses for the entire season?
No, we didn't have the luxury of hindsight to reveal the remarkable Cavs record during the season as we made our plays. But when the Cavs were 20-0 at home we had a very strong idea of what was possible for our bankroll
These are the types of plays pick52 seeks to indentify and exploit. They are not always available everyday. So in order to play them effectively we must seek them out specifically. We recognize them by the cut of their jib. We ask them to wear a large orange hat to the arranged meeting point so as to identify themselves
Anyway, the moneyline is usually deactivtated by most sportsbooks when the spread reaches between 12-13 points. The payouts way out there on the outter reaches of the moneyline are not great, but they are not horrible either. It's rare you'll see a -900 monyline, as most stay in the 800 range at worst. in this situation laying 800 dollars wins you 100. At first glance that is extremely unattractive for the amount of risk you'd be taking. But then again, it is a 12% return in just a little under 3 hrs. If you had 5000 to wager that is a little over 500 profit on one of the safer bets available on any card on any given day. A return of 12% annually is, traditionally, a successful profit on the new York Stock Exchange. However, it is a rare day on Wall St. to lose 100% of an investment in an equity in 3 hours time. Risk is inherent with both
So in order to reduce our monetary risk we add in a second team which increases our payout and allows us to keep our 3% wager parameter in check
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